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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dark Horseloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%

Dark Horse

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sheep · 4 games
25%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
sheep · 3 games
33%
Io
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
411 picks · 442 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 319 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
383 picks · 877 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
361 picks · 715 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 510 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 485 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 536 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Dark Horse
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Spiky Gaming 48%Dark Horse 52%
The model gave 52% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Game 2prediction missed
Spiky Gaming 48%Dark Horse 52%
The model gave 52% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 52%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2