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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Rabbitwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
33%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
420 picks · 309 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
414 picks · 437 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
393 picks · 823 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 886 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 712 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 513 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
351 picks · 482 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 532 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 64%
Hero pool strength57% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 45%Evil Rabbit 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit.
Game 2prediction correct
Spiky Gaming 45%Evil Rabbit 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 55%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2