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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Rabbitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Spiky Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 4 games
25%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Meepo
Meepooften banned
Manic · 2 games
50%

Evil Rabbit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 3 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 348 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 449 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
387 picks · 828 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
378 picks · 871 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
358 picks · 746 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 513 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
328 picks · 501 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 562 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Rabbit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
Spiky Gaming 48%Evil Rabbit 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 32:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverManic
53% · 94 games49% · 218 games
Primal BeastIrving
Primal Beast
Timbersaw
Timbersaw生死
43% · 89 games44% · 93 games
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressTK
45% · 114 games63% · 87 games
MarciQYQX
Marci
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHara
51% · 101 game
Game 2prediction missed40:24
Spiky Gaming 49%Evil Rabbit 51%
The model gave 51% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 52:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomManic
46% · 208 games49% · 277 games
TinyButterflyEffect
Tiny
Weaver
WeaverTK
52% · 202 games49% · 297 games
PangolierIrving
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark Seer生死
53% · 169 games50% · 193 games
Crystal MaidenQYQX
Crystal Maiden
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHara
52% · 188 games
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 54%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2