ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TTeam8loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Clockwerk
Hara · 6 games
Dark Willow
Hara · 6 games
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 5 games
Snapfire
Hara · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
生死 · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 3 games
Team8
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
422 picks · 520 bans
Clockwerk
370 picks · 357 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 445 bans
Luna
311 picks · 361 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 566 bans
Dark Willow
271 picks · 143 bans
Dragon Knight
260 picks · 345 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 243 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team8
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Spiky Gaming 50%Team8 50%
The model gave 50% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 35:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 50%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1