IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
СШАwin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Болгарияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
США
No games played over 6 months.
Болгария
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
460 picks · 493 bans
Rubick
453 picks · 220 bans
Batrider
392 picks · 654 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 602 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 698 bans
Timbersaw
328 picks · 765 bans
Undying
309 picks · 520 bans
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 632 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% США
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% США
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:5
США 66%Болгария 34%
The model gave 66% on США — the game was taken by Болгария in 26:33.
Game 2prediction missed33:17
США 66%Болгария 34%
The model gave 66% on США — the game was taken by Болгария in 32:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteСША · 66%
Series resultСША 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2