IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
СШАloss 0:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Кыргызстанwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
США
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Max · 1 game
Dark Willow
Zayac · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Max · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
474 picks · 506 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
398 picks · 668 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 615 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
Undying
314 picks · 524 bans
Storm Spirit
313 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% США
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% США
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
США 74%Кыргызстан 26%
The model gave 74% on США — the game was taken by Кыргызстан.
Model check result
Model favoriteСША · 74%
Series resultКыргызстан 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1