IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
СШАloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Мьянмаwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
США
No games played over 6 months.
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
465 picks · 496 bans
Rubick
457 picks · 218 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 659 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 603 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 704 bans
Timbersaw
327 picks · 766 bans
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 637 bans
Undying
311 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% США
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% США
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
США 58%Мьянма 42%
The model gave 58% on США — the game was taken by Мьянма in 41:35.
Game 2prediction missed10:28
США 58%Мьянма 42%
The model gave 58% on США — the game was taken by Мьянма in 24:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteСША · 58%
Series resultМьянма 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2