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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 13 games
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 8 games
13%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Daze · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ri4man · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 6 games
50%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
754 picks · 628 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 536 bans
53%
Doom
Doom
540 picks · 1067 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
538 picks · 1331 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
463 picks · 959 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1171 bans
49%
Techies
Techies
461 picks · 495 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
443 picks · 637 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:34
StoRm 49%Natus Vincere Junior 51%
The model gave 51% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingkrylat
54% · 204 games54% · 213 games
Void Spiritgotthejuice
Void Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfirenicky`cool
50% · 273 games49% · 345 games
PangolierRi4man
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmasteremptiness
55% · 341 game47% · 188 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaOneJey
47% · 146 games47% · 304 games
EnchantressRiddys
Enchantress
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSoNNeikO
43% · 173 games54% · 87 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed18:29
StoRm 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on StoRm — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 42:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerkrylat
45% · 179 games47% · 54 games
Juggernautgotthejuice
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
51% · 236 games50% · 131 game
PuckRi4man
Puck
Axe
Axeemptiness
50% · 42 games52% · 228 games
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightOneJey
53% · 213 games45% · 200 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Venomancer
VenomancerSoNNeikO
49% · 106 games58% · 163 games
TechiesRiddys
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2