Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Clubwin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rostikfacekid Clubloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Stray Club
No games played over 6 months.
Rostikfacekid Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
546 picks · 340 bans
Phoenix
477 picks · 564 bans
Rubick
443 picks · 234 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 355 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 503 bans
Puck
323 picks · 847 bans
Jakiro
317 picks · 214 bans
Beastmaster
315 picks · 800 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Stray Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Rostikfacekid Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Stray Club 42%Rostikfacekid Club 58%
The model gave 58% on Rostikfacekid Club — the game was taken by Stray Club.
Game 2prediction missed
Stray Club 42%Rostikfacekid Club 58%
The model gave 58% on Rostikfacekid Club — the game was taken by Stray Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteRostikfacekid Club · 58%
Series resultStray Club 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2