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BETBOOM Showmatch Dota · BO5
result vs prediction
Stray Teamloss 0:3
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Nix Teamwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Team

Necrophos
Necrophossignature
Stray · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Goodoq · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Vovapain · 6 games
67%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Stray · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Goodoq · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Vovapain · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
balod9l · 4 games
75%
Pudge
Pudge
DkFogas · 4 games
50%

Nix Team

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
ct0m · 3 games
33%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
Cooman · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
bowbowbow · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
bowbowbow · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
alagon · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
alagon · 2 games
50%
Lich
Lich
ct0m · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nix · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 365 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
370 picks · 657 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 206 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
329 picks · 352 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
328 picks · 363 bans
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 446 bans
55%
Windranger
Windranger
313 picks · 233 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
294 picks · 420 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Nix Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Stray Team 37%Nix Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Nix Team.
Game 2prediction correct
Stray Team 37%Nix Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Nix Team.
Game 3prediction correct
Stray Team 37%Nix Team 63%
The model gave 63% on Nix Team — the game was taken by Nix Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteNix Team · 63%
Series resultNix Team 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3