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Streamers League #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Stray Teamloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Stariy_bog Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Stray Team

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
balod9l · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Vovapain · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
zvёzd · 2 games
0%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Vovapain · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Stray · 2 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
Stray · 2 games
100%

Stariy_bog Team

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Коля · 2 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
senna · 2 games
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Stariy bog · 1 game
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Zloba · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Zloba · 1 game
0%
Windranger
Windranger
senna · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
633 picks · 444 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
598 picks · 340 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
437 picks · 645 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 492 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 356 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 381 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 498 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 977 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Stray Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Stray Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:13
Stray Team 59%Stariy_bog Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stray Team in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenzvёzd
47% · 89 games39% · 29 games
EarthshakerStariy bog
Earthshaker
Necrophos
NecrophosStray
64% · 11 games51% · 28 games
Lifestealersenna
Lifestealer
Pudge
PudgeDkFogas
57% · 61 game48% · 26 games
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
52% · 47 games52% · 85 games
Shadow DemonZloba
Shadow Demon
Io
IoVovapain
59% · 17 games44% · 57 games
SilencerКоля
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed11:26
Stray Team 60%Stariy_bog Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stariy_bog Team in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinzvёzd
51% · 34 games49% · 10 games
IoStariy bog
Io
Sniper
SniperStray
48% · 65 games50% · 97 games
BristlebackChodΣX
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDkFogas
51% · 157 games58% · 152 games
Tinysenna
Tiny
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
40% · 97 games59% · 31 game
Ogre MagiКоля
Ogre Magi
Silencer
SilencerVovapain
45% · 107 games48% · 170 games
TuskZloba
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed29:30
Stray Team 59%Stariy_bog Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Stray Team — the game was taken by Stariy_bog Team in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magezvёzd
63% · 45 games60% · 16 games
Broodmothersenna
Broodmother
Necrophos
NecrophosStray
59% · 28 games43% · 77 games
Queen of PainStariy bog
Queen of Pain
Lycan
LycanDkFogas
44% · 127 games50% · 52 games
DoommeLes
Doom
Io
IoVovapain
47% · 34 games56% · 107 games
TuskZloba
Tusk
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerGoodoq
51% · 80 games41% · 62 games
SilencerКоля
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteStray Team · 67%
Series resultStariy_bog Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3