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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 2:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 9 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 8 games
50%

Inner Circle

Warlock
Warlock
Se · 25 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 24 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 24 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 23 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
22%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 18 games
39%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 17 games
29%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
616 picks · 940 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 423 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 620 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 960 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 566 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 249 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
400 picks · 453 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 664 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% strongboys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
strongboys 54%Inner Circle 46%
The model gave 54% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 25:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciChodΣX
54% · 273 games49% · 139 games
Kunkkalaise
Kunkka
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
50% · 459 games56% · 187 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
Windrangerbashka
49% · 266 games39% · 229 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePonlo
51% · 132 games53% · 283 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkUndyne_
51% · 177 games48% · 469 games
TuskSe
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed9:35
strongboys 50%Inner Circle 50%
The model gave 50% on strongboys — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterChodΣX
43% · 115 games52% · 198 games
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterStojkov
50% · 105 games51% · 313 games
Marslaise
Mars
Windranger
Windrangerbashka
43% · 235 games58% · 377 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPonlo
45% · 306 games57% · 247 games
MuertaFernans
Muerta
Tusk
TuskUndyne_
44% · 532 games58% · 158 games
UndyingSe
Undying
Game 3prediction correct25:19
strongboys 52%Inner Circle 48%
The model gave 52% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 40:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbashka
52% · 209 games52% · 201 game
Shadow Fiend423
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
51% · 121 game48% · 228 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Bristleback
BristlebackChodΣX
55% · 185 games43% · 199 games
KunkkaSupream^
Kunkka
Chen
ChenUndyne_
59% · 162 games48% · 257 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinyPonlo
45% · 332 games46% · 124 games
UndyingSe
Undying
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 53%
Series resultstrongboys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3