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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 1:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 7 games
86%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
86%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
80%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 38 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 37 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
551 picks · 907 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 401 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 651 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 611 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 868 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 606 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 499 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 213 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% strongboys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
strongboys 38%Pipsqueak+4 62%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by strongboys.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 62%
Series resultstrongboys 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1