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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboyswin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Winter Bearloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 14 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 12 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ponlo · 9 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 8 games
38%

Winter Bear

Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 6 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 6 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 6 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlock
Delight · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
620 picks · 950 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 428 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 625 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
429 picks · 972 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 558 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 456 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
407 picks · 250 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 664 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
strongboys 55%Winter Bear 45%
The model gave 55% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbashka
49% · 199 games47% · 178 games
Muertazuyzyan
Muerta
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
49% · 368 games48% · 322 games
BeastmasterPanda
Beastmaster
Razor
RazorChodΣX
50% · 75 games60% · 105 games
EnigmafortniteMan
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockUndyne_
47% · 360 games50% · 202 games
Marciwaveformn
Marci
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPonlo
52% · 66 games51% · 261 game
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed14:41
strongboys 55%Winter Bear 45%
The model gave 55% on strongboys — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 32:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbashka
48% · 167 games63% · 44 games
Kezzuyzyan
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
48% · 402 games53% · 555 games
Ember SpiritPanda
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorChodΣX
58% · 77 games46% · 365 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Tiny
TinyPonlo
47% · 468 games47% · 199 games
PhoenixDelight
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockUndyne_
47% · 373 games51% · 324 games
Shadow Demonwaveformn
Shadow Demon
Game 3prediction correct33:27
strongboys 57%Winter Bear 43%
The model gave 57% on strongboys — the game was taken by strongboys in 45:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbashka
54% · 293 games56% · 308 games
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckStojkov
49% · 625 games50% · 328 games
Void SpiritPanda
Void Spirit
Razor
RazorChodΣX
54% · 94 games49% · 346 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleUndyne_
42% · 190 games43% · 457 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Tiny
TinyPonlo
53% · 534 games51% · 297 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 61%
Series resultstrongboys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3