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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboysloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 14 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 13 games
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Ponlo · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 10 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 8 games
38%

Winter Bear

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Delight · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Delight · 9 games
78%
Marci
Marcisignature
waveformn · 8 games
88%
Tusk
Tusksignature
waveformn · 8 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Delight · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razorsignature
fortniteMan · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
619 picks · 957 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 423 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 630 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 970 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
420 picks · 532 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
415 picks · 253 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 463 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 531 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Winter Bear
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% strongboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:38
strongboys 52%Winter Bear 48%
The model gave 52% on strongboys — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezbashka
49% · 124 games53% · 162 games
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
Gyrocopter
Razor
RazorChodΣX
52% · 111 games54% · 69 games
InvokerPanda
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStojkov
49% · 246 games46% · 244 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Dazzle
DazzleUndyne_
42% · 188 games51% · 182 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Marci
MarciPonlo
59% · 251 game47% · 263 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed7:30
strongboys 53%Winter Bear 47%
The model gave 53% on strongboys — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbashka
49% · 631 game49% · 307 games
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
51% · 598 games52% · 384 games
Ember SpiritPanda
Ember Spirit
Razor
RazorChodΣX
54% · 126 games48% · 337 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPonlo
48% · 206 games47% · 457 games
Tuskwaveformn
Tusk
Dazzle
DazzleUndyne_
44% · 208 games58% · 284 games
Shadow DemonDelight
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoritestrongboys · 56%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2