Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSESu4 Esportswin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TToLightloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Su4 Esports
No games played over 6 months.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
778 picks · 589 bans
Disruptor
547 picks · 438 bans
Tiny
444 picks · 379 bans
Nature's Prophet
418 picks · 694 bans
Beastmaster
410 picks · 959 bans
Undying
404 picks · 588 bans
Mirana
393 picks · 211 bans
Snapfire
390 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Su4 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ToLight
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Su4 Esports 42%ToLight 58%
The model gave 58% on ToLight — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Game 2prediction missed
Su4 Esports 42%ToLight 58%
The model gave 58% on ToLight — the game was taken by Su4 Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteToLight · 58%
Series resultSu4 Esports 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2