European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearloss 1:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Power Rangerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
summer bear
Techies
Delight · 11 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 4 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
Ogre Magi
monodrama · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Legion Commander
azimoff · 3 games
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 3 games
Power Rangers
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 30 games
Phoenixoften banned
Immersion · 30 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 28 games
Tusk
Immersion · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 21 game
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
629 picks · 440 bans
Rubick
581 picks · 322 bans
Phoenix
478 picks · 571 bans
Pangolier
454 picks · 663 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 375 bans
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 526 bans
Storm Spirit
345 picks · 409 bans
Puck
341 picks · 1038 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:17
summer bear 23%Power Rangers 77%
The model gave 77% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by summer bear in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful Spiritzuyzyan
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Storm SpiritPanda
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Undyingazimoff
Slardarnicky`cool
Techiesmonodrama
PhoenixImmersion
Keeper of the LightDelight
BaneHduo
Game 2prediction correct24:44
summer bear 24%Power Rangers 76%
The model gave 76% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendzuyzyan
LargoAlberkaaa
InvokerPanda
MagnusTA2000
Primal Beastazimoff
Tinynicky`cool
TechiesDelight
HoodwinkImmersion
Banemonodrama
DisruptorHduo
Game 3prediction correct20:51
summer bear 25%Power Rangers 75%
The model gave 75% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckPanda
LunaTA2000
Muertazuyzyan
Snapfirenicky`cool
Tidehunterazimoff
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
PhoenixDelight
ClockwerkImmersion
Techiesmonodrama
BaneHduo
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 90%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3