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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

summer bear

Techies
Techies
Delight · 14 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 5 games
40%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
monodrama · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
monodrama · 5 games
80%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Aidar · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
25%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 9 games
33%
Bane
Baneoften banned
kyford · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kae · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
490 picks · 334 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
353 picks · 463 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
341 picks · 535 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 503 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
317 picks · 651 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 322 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
279 picks · 203 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
266 picks · 431 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% summer bear
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% summer bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:32
summer bear 53%Team Spirit Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on summer bear — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
46% · 84 games53% · 264 games
Largokae
Largo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPanda
50% · 97 games53% · 497 games
Ember Spirit86
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordfortniteMan
52% · 160 games48% · 197 games
TechiesAidar
Techies
Tusk
Tuskwaveformn
49% · 248 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDelight
46% · 369 games
Game 2prediction missed0:40
summer bear 58%Team Spirit Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on summer bear — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 49:31.
Model check result
Model favoritesummer bear · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2