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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearloss 1:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

summer bear

Techies
Techies
Delight · 14 games
43%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Panda · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
monodrama · 4 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
azimoff · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 4 games
25%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 36 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 29 games
52%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 28 games
68%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Nefrit · 25 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
634 picks · 441 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
583 picks · 325 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
476 picks · 565 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
455 picks · 662 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 377 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 522 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 408 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 1034 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:32
summer bear 29%Zero Tenacity 71%
The model gave 71% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by summer bear in 1:10:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerPanda
50% · 157 games54% · 150 games
MuertaSmiling Knight
Muerta
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritzuyzyan
41% · 25 games51% · 239 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerazimoff
49% · 228 games48% · 356 games
SnapfireMikSa`
Snapfire
Undying
Undyingmonodrama
50% · 149 games46% · 282 games
RubickdEsire
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDelight
55% · 682 games49% · 214 games
AxeMoOz
Axe
Game 2prediction correct15:37
summer bear 30%Zero Tenacity 70%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 34:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertazuyzyan
54% · 214 games46% · 93 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Huskar
HuskarPanda
53% · 85 games46% · 294 games
TinySmiling Knight
Tiny
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderazimoff
53% · 16 games46% · 76 games
UndyingMikSa`
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDelight
52% · 463 games51% · 263 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magimonodrama
47% · 60 games52% · 112 games
LiondEsire
Lion
Game 3prediction correct16:37
summer bear 14%Zero Tenacity 86%
The model gave 86% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 86%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3