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ESL One Fall 2021. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SUPER MEGA SQUADloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
V-Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SUPER MEGA SQUAD

Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
7jesu · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 1 game
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Kidaro · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
GGwpLanaya · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
MieRo · 1 game
100%

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 16 games
69%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 10 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
hAze · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
428 picks · 172 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
313 picks · 471 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
306 picks · 623 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
301 picks · 696 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 525 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
273 picks · 114 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
258 picks · 337 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
255 picks · 314 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% SUPER MEGA SQUAD
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:37
SUPER MEGA SQUAD 31%V-Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 42:49.
Game 2prediction correct10:42
SUPER MEGA SQUAD 31%V-Gaming 69%
The model gave 69% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 26:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 69%
Series resultV-Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2