Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 1:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:0
FH Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Rubick
sheep · 2 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 1 game
Mirana
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
FH Gaming
Lich
斗圣 · 4 games
Dazzle
斗圣 · 3 games
Disruptor
斗圣 · 3 games
Clockwerk
斗圣 · 1 game
Mirana
斗圣 · 1 game
Rubick
斗圣 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Warlock
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
360 picks · 345 bans
Tusk
319 picks · 297 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
253 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 558 bans
Primal Beast
235 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Fiend
222 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
217 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Supernova
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Supernova 53%FH Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova.
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 53%
Series resultSupernova 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1