Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Holy Grailloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
Rubick
sheep · 3 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 2 games
Snapfire
sheep · 2 games
Tusk
sheep · 2 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Holy Grail
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Mirana
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Tzy · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Tusk
ButterflyEffect · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
786 picks · 535 bans
Tiny
559 picks · 404 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 442 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
Nature's Prophet
427 picks · 689 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 296 bans
Death Prophet
393 picks · 759 bans
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 818 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Holy Grail
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Holy Grail
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:31
Supernova 52%Holy Grail 48%
The model gave 52% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusksheep
Death ProphetButterflyEffect
55% · 7 games
SlardarTzy
50% · 256 games
Tinyomoxiloyi
Game 2prediction correct38:22
Supernova 51%Holy Grail 49%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinysheep
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
56% · 84 games
ViperTzy
42% · 202 games
Snapfireomoxiloyi
Model check result
Model favoriteHoly Grail · 51%
Series resultSupernova 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2