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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2 Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Holy Grailloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Supernova

Rubick
Rubick
sheep · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 5 games
40%
Tiny
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
sheep · 3 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sheep · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sheep · 3 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
sheep · 2 games
50%

Holy Grail

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
omoxiloyi · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
omoxiloyi · 4 games
25%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tzy · 3 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
omoxiloyi · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
omoxiloyi · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
998 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
648 picks · 478 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
593 picks · 946 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
543 picks · 402 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
536 picks · 426 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 367 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
514 picks · 1201 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
502 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Supernova
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:7
Supernova 51%Holy Grail 49%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenix
Phoenixsheep
51% · 96 games50% · 30 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
46% · 24 games
Primal BeastTzy
Primal Beast
50% · 42 games
Miranaomoxiloyi
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed8:28
Supernova 52%Holy Grail 48%
The model gave 52% on Supernova — the game was taken by Holy Grail in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenix
Phoenixsheep
47% · 50 games38% · 35 games
DoomButterflyEffect
Doom
68% · 15 games
Queen of PainTzy
Queen of Pain
little data
Bounty Hunteromoxiloyi
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct45:25
Supernova 55%Holy Grail 45%
The model gave 55% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 45:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusk
Tusksheep
48% · 136 games47% · 87 games
DoomButterflyEffect
Doom
52% · 19 games
UnderlordTzy
Underlord
56% · 30 games
Earth Spiritomoxiloyi
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 56%
Series resultSupernova 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3