Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovaloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Limitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Earthshaker
sheep · 2 games
Mirana
sheep · 2 games
Rubick
sheep · 2 games
Dark Willow
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
Tusk
sheep · 1 game
Limit
Tusksignature
Echo · 7 games
Tiny
Yds · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Victoria · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 3 games
Lich
Victoria · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
372 picks · 350 bans
Tusk
335 picks · 314 bans
Marci
268 picks · 504 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 571 bans
Undying
250 picks · 461 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 600 bans
Snapfire
220 picks · 127 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 350 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 67%
Hero pool strength64% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:37
Supernova 44%Limit 56%
The model gave 56% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshakersheep
Shadow FiendXm
45% · 7 games
Nature's ProphetSrf
little data
Dragon KnightEcho
54% · 50 games
TinyYds
64% · 7 games
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Game 2prediction correct22:32
Supernova 48%Limit 52%
The model gave 52% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spiritsheep
Nature's ProphetXm
42% · 8 games
InvokerEcho
47% · 11 games
BeastmasterSrf
48% · 19 games
MiranaYds
38% · 4 games
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 55%
Series resultLimit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2