Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovaloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Zerowin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Rubick
sheep · 9 games
Phoenix
sheep · 6 games
Shadow Demon
sheep · 5 games
Tiny
sheep · 5 games
Tusk
sheep · 5 games
Earth Spirit
sheep · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
sheep · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
sheep · 1 game
Team Zero
Pangolieroften banned
7e · 5 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
zzq · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
zzq · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iceice · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Cty · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
Cty · 4 games
Rubick
iceice · 3 games
Techiesoften banned
iceice · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
697 picks · 486 bans
Techies
574 picks · 617 bans
Doom
564 picks · 1098 bans
Disruptor
556 picks · 505 bans
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1225 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1041 bans
Enchantress
461 picks · 675 bans
Pangolier
457 picks · 914 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 77%
Hero pool strength62% Team Zero
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
Supernova 41%Team Zero 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Willowsheep
Naga SirenCty
55% · 16 games
BeastmasterBEYOND
54% · 20 games
Storm Spirit7e
58% · 15 games
Undyingzzq
45% · 7 games
Pugnaiceice
Game 2prediction correct17:34
Supernova 33%Team Zero 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enchantresssheep
Naga SirenCty
62% · 72 games
TimbersawBEYOND
54% · 37 games
Void Spirit7e
64% · 54 games
Batridericeice
54% · 88 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 70%
Series resultTeam Zero 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2