DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CGCFU Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Surge Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
CFU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 686 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Dawnbreaker
258 picks · 639 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 532 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
245 picks · 564 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Surge Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Surge Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
Surge Gaming 52%CFU Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 25:58.
Game 2prediction missed17:48
Surge Gaming 52%CFU Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by CFU Gaming in 42:18.
Game 3prediction correct36:16
Surge Gaming 52%CFU Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Surge Gaming — the game was taken by Surge Gaming in 41:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteSurge Gaming · 52%
Series resultSurge Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3