PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionSXSustancia Xloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hokoriwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Sustancia X
Earthshakeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Pamplona · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
drakesh1t · 1 game
Zeus
Pamplona · 1 game
Hokori
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Muerta
Genek · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 7 games
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 6 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
522 picks · 704 bans
Clockwerk
485 picks · 559 bans
Batrider
477 picks · 602 bans
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
Tiny
466 picks · 562 bans
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 796 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 962 bans
Lion
394 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 33%
Hero pool strength54% Hokori
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:35
Sustancia X 44%Hokori 56%
The model gave 56% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 21:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyÑengoflow KELOKE
Phantom AssassinCostabile
Bristlebackdrakesh1t
DoomFCR
ZeusPamplona
PugnaGardick
Game 2prediction missed32:12
Sustancia X 47%Hokori 53%
The model gave 53% on Hokori — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristlebackdrakesh1t
Dragon KnightCostabile
PangolierÑengoflow KELOKE
AbaddonFCR
Shadow DemonPamplona
PhoenixGardick
Game 3prediction correct11:32
Sustancia X 45%Hokori 55%
The model gave 55% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Enigmadrakesh1t
BristlebackCostabile
TinyÑengoflow KELOKE
AbaddonFCR
Bounty HunterPamplona
Shadow DemonGardick
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 62%
Series resultHokori 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3