Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:3series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:3
BOOM Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
BOOM Esports
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 23 games
Weaversignature
Tims · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Skem · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
Banesignature
Skem · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
539 picks · 381 bans
Mars
456 picks · 651 bans
Queen of Pain
432 picks · 526 bans
Weaver
423 picks · 850 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 180 bans
Kunkka
333 picks · 536 bans
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 527 bans
Wraith King
272 picks · 307 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 75%
Hero pool strength64% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:30
T1 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 30:11.
Game 2prediction correct3:17
T1 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 20:55.
Game 3prediction correct29:27
T1 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 41:31.
Game 4prediction correct12:29
T1 39%BOOM Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4