ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fnaticwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
466 picks · 634 bans
Bane
450 picks · 283 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 492 bans
Sand King
401 picks · 532 bans
Death Prophet
358 picks · 797 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 551 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 557 bans
Pangolier
334 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total53% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
T1 47%Fnatic 53%
The model gave 53% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 44:47.
Game 2prediction correct23:12
T1 47%Fnatic 53%
The model gave 53% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 43:53.
Game 3prediction correct8:19
T1 47%Fnatic 53%
The model gave 53% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic in 39:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 53%
Series resultFnatic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3