Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Neon Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Neon Esports
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 22 games
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 18 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 17 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 15 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Unknown- · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 15 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Tims · 14 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
372 picks · 527 bans
Bane
357 picks · 259 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 719 bans
Io
240 picks · 590 bans
Ember Spirit
235 picks · 306 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 152 bans
Queen of Pain
233 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total71% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:26
T1 71%Neon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 24:24.
Game 2prediction missed17:29
T1 71%Neon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 42:59.
Game 3prediction missed18:27
T1 71%Neon Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on T1 — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 40:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 71%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3