Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 14 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 10 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Linasignature
Moon · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 449 bans
Mars
489 picks · 698 bans
Bane
453 picks · 290 bans
Dragon Knight
441 picks · 533 bans
Sand King
393 picks · 546 bans
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 633 bans
Pangolier
374 picks · 620 bans
Keeper of the Light
357 picks · 748 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% T1
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total50% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
T1 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 33:53.
Game 2prediction correct19:30
T1 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 44:12.
Game 3prediction correct7:29
T1 50%Team SMG 50%
The model gave 50% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 27:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 50%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3