The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
T1win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 11 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 7 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 6 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
299 picks · 180 bans
Mars
289 picks · 397 bans
Lina
277 picks · 557 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 372 bans
Shadow Demon
248 picks · 256 bans
Hoodwink
243 picks · 88 bans
Tidehunter
238 picks · 403 bans
Void Spirit
222 picks · 252 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 11%
Hero pool strength59% T1
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:4
T1 81%Thunder Awaken 19%
The model gave 81% on T1 — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:07.
Game 2prediction missed26:19
T1 81%Thunder Awaken 19%
The model gave 81% on T1 — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 38:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 81%
Series resultT1 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2