The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vici Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Vici Gaming
Marcisignature
Frisk · 10 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 9 games
Tiny
Yds · 9 games
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
Snapfire
Yang · 8 games
Vipersignature
Xm · 8 games
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
533 picks · 418 bans
Marci
448 picks · 681 bans
Dawnbreaker
316 picks · 434 bans
Puck
314 picks · 737 bans
Death Prophet
299 picks · 486 bans
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 354 bans
Batrider
255 picks · 846 bans
Dazzle
247 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
T1 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:07.
Game 2prediction correct31:37
T1 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 56:47.
Game 3prediction correct35:16
T1 47%Vici Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 38:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 53%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3