?
arrow_backBack to match
IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Таиландwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Россияloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Таиланд

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
tnt · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 1 game
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
tnt · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
LionaX · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Fearless · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
KNP · 1 game
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
KNP · 1 game
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
boombell · 1 game
100%

Россия

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
chambi · 1 game
100%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
TTR · 1 game
100%
Tiny
Tiny
[T]SA · 1 game
100%
Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
Limitless · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 228 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
304 picks · 540 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
253 picks · 486 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
249 picks · 381 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
243 picks · 151 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 282 bans
51%
Enigma
Enigma
207 picks · 714 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Россия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Таиланд
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Таиланд 57%Россия 43%
The model gave 57% on Таиланд — the game was taken by Таиланд in 19:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKNP
60% · 56 games44% · 69 games
BroodmotherLimitless
Broodmother
Batrider
BatriderFearless
52% · 103 games48% · 267 games
Tinychambi
Tiny
Leshrac
Leshractnt
52% · 108 games44% · 29 games
Troll WarlordTTR
Troll Warlord
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinboombell
47% · 111 games54% · 115 games
Disruptor[T]SA
Disruptor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLionaX
49% · 102 games
Game 2prediction correct31:16
Таиланд 55%Россия 45%
The model gave 55% on Таиланд — the game was taken by Таиланд in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKNP
67% · 33 games48% · 152 games
Leshracchambi
Leshrac
Sniper
SniperFearless
49% · 22 games48% · 87 games
BroodmotherLimitless
Broodmother
Tiny
Tinytnt
49% · 230 games45% · 188 games
Chaos KnightTTR
Chaos Knight
Rubick
Rubickboombell
50% · 93 games50% · 96 games
Earthshaker[T]SA
Earthshaker
Snapfire
SnapfireLionaX
51% · 145 games
Model check result
Model favoriteТаиланд · 61%
Series resultТаиланд 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2