PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTMTaiLung Mafiawin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sentinel Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TaiLung Mafia
No games played over 6 months.
Sentinel Esports
Silenceroften banned
555k · 6 games
Phoenix
Pamplona · 5 games
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 4 games
Slardar
Hermit · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Disruptor
555k · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
383 picks · 347 bans
Puck
340 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
340 picks · 170 bans
Pugna
295 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
282 picks · 126 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 790 bans
Batrider
272 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Sentinel Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% TaiLung Mafia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TaiLung Mafia 86%Sentinel Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia.
Game 2prediction correct
TaiLung Mafia 86%Sentinel Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on TaiLung Mafia — the game was taken by TaiLung Mafia.
Model check result
Model favoriteTaiLung Mafia · 86%
Series resultTaiLung Mafia 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2