ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Allianceloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
731 picks · 550 bans
Puck
518 picks · 1034 bans
Dawnbreaker
451 picks · 581 bans
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 195 bans
Winter Wyvern
359 picks · 388 bans
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
Razor
315 picks · 621 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 15%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:4
Talon Esports 69%Alliance 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Alliance in 28:49.
Game 2prediction correct28:56
Talon Esports 69%Alliance 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 45:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2