ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Rubick
Oli · 18 games
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 18 games
Windranger
Mikoto · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 14 games
Batridersignature
Q · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 12 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Q · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 12 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Dark Willow
225 picks · 101 bans
Grimstroke
224 picks · 262 bans
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 270 bans
Pangolier
191 picks · 411 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
188 picks · 249 bans
Earth Spirit
173 picks · 272 bans
Sven
172 picks · 251 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:16
Talon Esports 37%Aurora Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:48.
Game 2prediction correct6:31
Talon Esports 37%Aurora Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:42.
Game 3prediction missed33:33
Talon Esports 37%Aurora Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 1:18:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 63%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3