DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBruv123loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 12 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
Ponyo · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Ws · 9 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 9 games
Slardaroften banned
Ws · 9 games
Bruv123
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Bob · 6 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Se · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 317 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 458 bans
Hoodwink
325 picks · 378 bans
Snapfire
315 picks · 264 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 446 bans
Enchantress
286 picks · 474 bans
Sven
283 picks · 297 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Bruv123
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:30
Talon Esports 69%Bruv123 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 48:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMikoto
Terrorblade423
TimbersawWs
EarthshakerBob
BroodmotherAkashi
BatriderSe
Naga SirenKuku
Dark WillowJhocam
Game 2prediction correct21:10
Talon Esports 68%Bruv123 32%
The model gave 68% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 26:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaAkashi
Nature's Prophet423
TimbersawWs
PuckBob
KunkkaMikoto
BatriderSe
Shadow DemonKuku
TuskJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 80%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2