The International 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Entitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Marcioften banned
Q · 21 game
Tiny
Q · 16 games
Pangoliersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Hyde · 14 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 14 games
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
Dawnbreakersignature
kpii · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 13 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
534 picks · 405 bans
Marci
480 picks · 725 bans
Undying
310 picks · 515 bans
Death Prophet
306 picks · 480 bans
Puck
295 picks · 698 bans
Dawnbreaker
284 picks · 399 bans
Enigma
272 picks · 865 bans
Pangolier
265 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 49%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:37
Talon Esports 36%Entity 64%
The model gave 64% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 50:39.
Game 2prediction correct21:36
Talon Esports 36%Entity 64%
The model gave 64% on Entity — the game was taken by Entity in 44:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 64%
Series resultEntity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2