ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 12 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
CHYuan · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Ponyo · 8 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Akashi · 8 games
Execration
Dark Willow
Shanks · 6 games
Magnussignature
Tino- · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Earthshaker
Bob · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Lion
Shanks · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
313 picks · 460 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 414 bans
Grimstroke
266 picks · 445 bans
Lion
244 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
242 picks · 133 bans
Nature's Prophet
234 picks · 674 bans
Pangolier
232 picks · 325 bans
Magnus
230 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Execration
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total55% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Talon Esports 50%Execration 50%
The model gave 50% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinAkashi
MagnusBob
BeastmasterWs
Arc WardenTino-
Dragon KnightCHYuan
Techiescml
Crystal MaidenPonyo
TuskShanks
LionJhocam
Game 2prediction correct40:17
Talon Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAkashi
Ember SpiritBob
Keeper of the LightCHYuan
Arc WardenTino-
MarsWs
Windrangercml
HoodwinkJhocam
BatriderShanks
Crystal MaidenPonyo
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 55%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2