?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Phoenix
Phoenix
Ponyo · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kuku · 14 games
43%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Jhocam · 12 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 11 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 10 games
40%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 25 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
366 picks · 339 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
364 picks · 493 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 464 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
309 picks · 601 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
292 picks · 350 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
284 picks · 153 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
261 picks · 421 bans
48%
Batrider
Batrider
251 picks · 245 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:17
Talon Esports 45%Heroic 55%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorWs
43% · 156 games52% · 265 games
LunaParker
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAkashi
47% · 309 games55% · 80 games
Broodmother4nalog
Broodmother
Invoker
InvokerMikoto
50% · 163 games50% · 144 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Tusk
TuskJhocam
44% · 274 games55% · 281 game
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaKuku
47% · 117 games57% · 249 games
HoodwinkScofield
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed48:17
Talon Esports 43%Heroic 57%
The model gave 57% on Heroic — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 44:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAkashi
44% · 107 games54% · 149 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Puck
PuckMikoto
49% · 191 game45% · 141 game
Void Spirit4nalog
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomWs
51% · 160 games53% · 155 games
MagnusDavai
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressKuku
47% · 250 games53% · 327 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Phoenix
PhoenixJhocam
49% · 169 games53% · 105 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2