?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fly · 7 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hyde · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Fly · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 4 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hyde · 4 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Fly · 3 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Gabbi · 3 games
67%

InterActive Philippines

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Kim0 · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 5 games
20%
Lion
Lion
Matt · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 5 games
40%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Luciano · 5 games
20%
Rubick
Rubick
Matt · 4 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Marb · 4 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Luciano · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
374 picks · 273 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 538 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
325 picks · 202 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
314 picks · 722 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
265 picks · 339 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
242 picks · 154 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 312 bans
54%
Io
Io
234 picks · 604 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 36%
Hero pool strength60% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:9
Talon Esports 62%InterActive Philippines 38%
The model gave 62% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGabbi
34% · 80 games47% · 70 games
Drow RangerMarb
Drow Ranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
53% · 131 game53% · 216 games
Queen of PainLuciano
Queen of Pain
Mars
Marskpii
45% · 242 games56% · 173 games
RazorNishababy
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFly
54% · 128 games55% · 130 games
Spirit BreakerMatt
Spirit Breaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHyde
45% · 120 games55% · 112 games
Ogre MagiKim0
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct55:14
Talon Esports 63%InterActive Philippines 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 45:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGabbi
50% · 133 games64% · 15 games
TinkerNishababy
Tinker
Kunkka
KunkkaMikoto
56% · 133 games40% · 68 games
Drow RangerMarb
Drow Ranger
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerkpii
55% · 84 games46% · 431 game
MarsLuciano
Mars
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFly
57% · 145 games45% · 80 games
Ogre MagiKim0
Ogre Magi
Pangolier
PangolierHyde
53% · 214 games48% · 115 games
Dark WillowMatt
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 73%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2