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DreamLeague Season 20 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Tusk
Tusk
Q · 29 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 25 games
68%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Jabz · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Q · 22 games
59%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
67%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Oli · 18 games
72%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Mikoto · 18 games
78%

LGD Gaming

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
pLAnet · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
pLAnet · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
53%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
pLAnet · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 622 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
614 picks · 534 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1329 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
543 picks · 1078 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
468 picks · 516 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
466 picks · 964 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1166 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
447 picks · 638 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:14
Talon Esports 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerJabz
47% · 146 games50% · 57 games
Phantom Lancershiro
Phantom Lancer
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker23savage
47% · 129 games48% · 260 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Morphling
MorphlingMikoto
49% · 161 game48% · 209 games
Magnusniu
Magnus
Windranger
WindrangerQ
44% · 125 games54% · 216 games
TechiespLAnet
Techies
Silencer
SilencerOli
56% · 214 games60% · 33 games
Witch Doctory`
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed25:15
Talon Esports 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddon23savage
43% · 39 games56% · 117 games
Lycanshiro
Lycan
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJabz
54% · 289 games54% · 234 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckMikoto
51% · 202 games45% · 163 games
Magnusniu
Magnus
Windranger
WindrangerQ
46% · 118 games54% · 152 games
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerOli
50% · 216 games43% · 198 games
Crystal Maideny`
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2