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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Salvation Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Ponyo · 13 games
54%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
CHYuan · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 11 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 9 games
78%

Salvation Gaming

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
100%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Rupido · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LOyd · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LOyd · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 355 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
347 picks · 538 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 339 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 504 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
317 picks · 252 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 597 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
301 picks · 182 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
290 picks · 271 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:11
Talon Esports 67%Salvation Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAkashi
48% · 94 games54% · 165 games
Faceless VoidYoungGodLevi
Faceless Void
Leshrac
LeshracCHYuan
55% · 51 game48% · 79 games
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWs
52% · 111 games46% · 27 games
AxeRupido
Axe
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
53% · 185 games48% · 79 games
GyrocopterDric~
Gyrocopter
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPonyo
53% · 43 games41% · 134 games
Vengeful SpiritLOyd
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Talon Esports 65%Salvation Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
43% · 214 games52% · 95 games
AlchemistYoungGodLevi
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaCHYuan
48% · 151 game52% · 134 games
PuckWonder'boy
Puck
Omniknight
OmniknightWs
62% · 13 games48% · 157 games
MarsRupido
Mars
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
57% · 256 games49% · 165 games
TerrorbladeLOyd
Terrorblade
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPonyo
61% · 60 games39% · 143 games
Vengeful SpiritDric~
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 79%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2