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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Aureusloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Jhocam · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 20 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 19 games
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jhocam · 18 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ws · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ws · 15 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kuku · 14 games
29%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 12 games
75%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 11 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 11 games
64%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 10 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 9 games
67%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 8 games
88%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Natsumi · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
398 picks · 357 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
352 picks · 181 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 867 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
302 picks · 346 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 796 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 133 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
273 picks · 686 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:4
Talon Esports 56%Team Aureus 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusa23savage
56% · 161 game50% · 145 games
SvenNatsumi
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
54% · 140 games45% · 156 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
51% · 281 game48% · 184 games
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Windranger
WindrangerQ
45% · 58 games50% · 166 games
PugnaSkem
Pugna
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
55% · 189 games45% · 178 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Talon Esports 56%Team Aureus 44%
The model gave 56% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight23savage
52% · 351 game51% · 238 games
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMikoto
52% · 397 games43% · 281 game
DawnbreakerForce
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierWs
44% · 405 games50% · 358 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenOli
60% · 158 games43% · 208 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneQ
56% · 110 games48% · 336 games
ClockwerkSkem
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 61%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2