?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kukuysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 20 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 17 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 15 games
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
47%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 14 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 14 games
86%

Team Kukuys

Marci
Marci
Palos · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jing · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jing · 3 games
33%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
Palos · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
387 picks · 494 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
377 picks · 297 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 550 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 384 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 724 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
292 picks · 406 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Talon Esports 88%Team Kukuys 12%
The model gave 88% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 31:42.
Game 2prediction correct23:4
Talon Esports 88%Team Kukuys 12%
The model gave 88% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 23:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 88%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2