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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
kpii · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Xepher · 14 games
43%
Bane
Bane
Hyde · 13 games
54%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Q · 13 games
46%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 13 games
54%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 26 games
73%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 20 games
70%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 18 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
734 picks · 550 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
518 picks · 1037 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
453 picks · 582 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
429 picks · 770 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
366 picks · 197 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 389 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
320 picks · 365 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
315 picks · 622 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:34
Talon Esports 48%Thunder Awaken 52%
The model gave 52% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King23savage
48% · 363 games53% · 142 games
Templar AssassinPakazs
Templar Assassin
Pudge
PudgeMikoto
56% · 47 games47% · 297 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerkpii
49% · 59 games52% · 105 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressHyde
52% · 213 games49% · 207 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixQ
50% · 143 games47% · 74 games
Ogre MagiPanda
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed37:13
Talon Esports 49%Thunder Awaken 51%
The model gave 51% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom23savage
49% · 96 games50% · 210 games
Wraith KingPakazs
Wraith King
Puck
PuckMikoto
42% · 226 games46% · 112 games
BatriderDarkMago
Batrider
Visage
Visagekpii
56% · 51 game55% · 51 game
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkQ
50% · 121 game50% · 171 game
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Bane
BaneHyde
57% · 218 games47% · 168 games
Winter WyvernPanda
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2