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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Hyde · 10 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 9 games
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
23savage · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcisignature
Q · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
86%
Razor
Razoroften banned
23savage · 7 games
57%

TNC Predator

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Bombi · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xiaoyu154 · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
YoungGodLevi · 10 games
60%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Roddgeee · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
xsilearn · 9 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 9 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
xsilearn · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 449 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
420 picks · 900 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 577 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
322 picks · 373 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 197 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 572 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Talon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:36
Talon Esports 63%TNC Predator 37%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 33:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doom23savage
56% · 85 games51% · 273 games
WeaverKarma丶
Weaver
Zeus
ZeusMikoto
39% · 56 games53% · 175 games
BeastmasterBok
Beastmaster
Visage
Visagekpii
59% · 30 games49% · 151 game
Enchantresscml
Enchantress
Marci
MarciQ
45% · 57 games
Bane
BaneHyde
49% · 371 game
Game 2prediction correct49:36
Talon Esports 65%TNC Predator 35%
The model gave 65% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 54:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King23savage
62% · 128 games51% · 230 games
MedusaKarma丶
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierMikoto
47% · 100 games48% · 91 game
MarciBok
Marci
Death Prophet
Death Prophetkpii
52% · 99 games33% · 113 games
Dawnbreakercml
Dawnbreaker
Doom
DoomQ
64% · 55 games
Disruptor
DisruptorHyde
57% · 52 games
Game 3prediction correct24:23
Talon Esports 61%TNC Predator 39%
The model gave 61% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling23savage
47% · 77 games42% · 46 games
Anti-MageKarma丶
Anti-Mage
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMikoto
52% · 113 games48% · 156 games
EnchantressBok
Enchantress
Mars
Marskpii
54% · 185 games52% · 227 games
Death Prophetcml
Death Prophet
Windranger
WindrangerQ
57% · 37 games
Warlock
WarlockHyde
46% · 17 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 72%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3