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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kuku · 18 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
47%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 14 games
86%

Yangon Galacticos

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 5 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
397 picks · 507 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
387 picks · 306 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
363 picks · 382 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 561 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
331 picks · 402 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
329 picks · 159 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
324 picks · 739 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
306 picks · 425 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Talon Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total85% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:24
Talon Esports 75%Yangon Galacticos 25%
The model gave 75% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMikoto
56% · 30 games44% · 20 games
Phantom AssassinKsh
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
58% · 44 games48% · 177 games
InvokerYoung PH
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWs
62% · 9 games
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
46% · 53 games
Lion
LionJhocam
49% · 61 game
Game 2prediction correct38:9
Talon Esports 71%Yangon Galacticos 29%
The model gave 71% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 21:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
44% · 100 games49% · 217 games
GyrocopterKsh
Gyrocopter
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
47% · 172 games53% · 204 games
TinyYoung PH
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWs
38% · 26 games
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinJhocam
56% · 64 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKuku
58% · 59 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 85%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2