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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Aravaloss 1:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 1:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Arava

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Zayac · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Zayac · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Zayac · 1 game
0%

KZ TEAM

Mirana
Mirana
dEsire · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mr. Luck · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 13 games
38%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 11 games
55%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 210 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 515 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
328 picks · 344 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 519 bans
53%
Morphling
Morphling
295 picks · 574 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
294 picks · 478 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
276 picks · 655 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 493 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:36
Team Arava 41%KZ TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 49:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierAskold
54% · 298 games56% · 8 games
Wraith KingNande
Wraith King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
55% · 308 games41% · 72 games
KunkkaW1sh-
Kunkka
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageZayac
57% · 148 games44% · 94 games
DawnbreakerSkyLark
Dawnbreaker
Warlock
WarlockMax
58% · 29 games45% · 514 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
43% · 95 games
Dark WillowSsaSpartan
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed27:21
Team Arava 36%KZ TEAM 64%
The model gave 64% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Team Arava in 44:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAskold
45% · 78 games55% · 17 games
Night StalkerSkyLark
Night Stalker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBlizzy
39% · 58 games52% · 49 games
EarthshakerW1sh-
Earthshaker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMax
53% · 228 games51% · 31 game
PudgeNande
Pudge
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritZayac
53% · 42 games49% · 289 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
59% · 20 games
OracleSsaSpartan
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct27:40
Team Arava 38%KZ TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 50:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerAskold
46% · 72 gameslittle data
Wraith KingNande
Wraith King
Tidehunter
TidehunterBlizzy
52% · 102 games44% · 134 games
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Warlock
WarlockMax
58% · 21 game59% · 34 games
Legion CommanderSkyLark
Legion Commander
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
48% · 82 games47% · 74 games
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
Nature's Prophet
55% · 35 games
Keeper of the LightPablo
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 72%
Series resultKZ TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3